Four days after Microsoft agreed to buy 626,000 carbon credits from a Canadian developer, Carbon Pulse reported that the same company has suspended its carbon removal purchase programme. The largest buyer in the engineered removals market stepped back mid-week, and every serious conversation in the sector now runs through that fact. Demand concentration has been the removal market's open secret; this week it became its open question.
Concentration Risk, Made Visible
Microsoft's pause matters because the company is not one buyer among many; it is the anchor demand for high-durability CDR. The week's analysis warned that weakening the EU ETS price signal would damage the carbon removal investment trajectory just as voluntary anchor demand wobbles. The lesson for anyone financing removals: business models built on a single corporate buyer, however creditworthy, carry a fragility that compliance-linked demand does not. This is precisely why the shift toward regulated markets, which we have tracked all year, matters more each month.
CBAM Gets a Price Tag
The European Commission published the first quarterly CBAM certificate price: 75.36 euros. For exporters into Europe, the carbon border now has a number, updated quarterly, that can be plugged into contracts and pricing models. Alongside it, a feature examined the accounting debate over carbon prices paid abroad, with taxes that allow offsets posing a special problem, and EU capitals urged caution over recognising international credits in CBAM. The machinery is getting more precise, and precision raises the value of clean, verifiable emissions data at the installation level.
Indonesia: Local Control and a Busier Exchange
Two Indonesia items this week deserve attention. A flagship forest carbon project is shifting to local control amid regulatory tightening, continuing the pattern of Indonesian authorities asserting ownership over how the country's carbon assets are structured. And trading on Indonesia's exchange rebounded in March as retirements rose, evidence that domestic demand mechanisms are starting to bite. Elsewhere, EU verified emissions fell 1.3% in 2025, and RGGI allowances rallied to record highs around $30.
What This Means for Investors
Three lessons. First, underwrite removal projects against compliance and diversified demand, never against one corporate programme; Microsoft's pause will not be the last. Second, CBAM's published price turns policy risk into a quantifiable cost line; Indonesian exporters should model it now. Third, Indonesia's combination of tighter domestic control and rising exchange activity points to a market professionalising on its own terms; foreign capital will participate through structures that respect local control, not around it.
